Monday, May 9, 2016

Season 6 Episode 3 - Oathbreaker - Post Game Wrap-up

Rickon ( & Osha) This was an unseen maneuver in E4. Would have figured he stayed safe and hidden as heir apparent of House Stark. A bit too contrived that Sansa escapes and Rickon gets caught and handed over to Bolton. I doubt Baelish knows Rickon is alive and is in league with the Umbers to betray Bolton from within.  Also, Rickon's wolf head appears to be a bit too small as compared to Robb's or Jon's. With Bolton known to flay those he conquered, Petyr would be incredibly dumb to put Rickon in jeopardy and probably cause his death.  If LF cares for Sansa, he wouldn't risk Rickon as a prisoner and instead should have rescued him and keep him hidden in the Vale.
Rickon S6E4 prediction: Become a useful hostage as bait to lure Jon or Sansa to Winterfell to attempt a rescue mission or prisoner exchange.
Osha S6E4 prediction: Become a toy for Ramsey but might just stay chained and starved because she has too much spirit

Smalljon Umber - the Wildlings are really that much of a problem? They are stationed in keeps along the wall. How are they raiding towns now? Poor excuses for Umber to use Rickon as a pawn. And Ramsey's reputation does not proceed him? Umber really needs Bolton's help against the Wildlings? This Umber lord is really small time. With the usual death of the protector wolf, it bodes ill for Rickon's future. Rickon will be a chess piece to get Jon Snow to surrender at the Wall. However --

Umber S6E4 prediction: Hunt for Wildlings with Bolton and then go home. But, Ramsey won't easily let him take his leave and demand he stay for the whole game with Castle Black as support.

Ramsey Bolton - He doesn't know Jon has gone native. When he goes to mop up the Wildlings in the North, his last stop will be Castle Black.  He has given up the chase for Sansa. Will he find another to marry and make alliance to secure his position among the northern lords since he only seems to have Karstark? Now he has Umber in the fold, although tenuously. Without any knowledge that White Walkers are coming, is wiping out Wildlings a first priority? Ramsey doesn't seem to be particularly in a rush to renew the search for Sansa after getting his father out of the way.  Or to get his pet Theon whom he mutilated to be beyond worth to the Greyjoy lineage since he can no longer sire children. Is Ramsey kicking back because he has Rickon and can spread news of his capture to lure Jon and Sansa? Ramsey is surely not going to let Rickon go, and will relish killing the last known male heir to House Stark.  Or is keeping Rickon alive a way to ensure that Sansa will stay put by Ramsey's side? Once Sansa bears Ramsey a male heir, her purpose has been served and she is expendable, as well as Rickon.

Ramsey S6E4 prediction: Send his army with Umber to mop up Wildlings. Ramsey has to wait until Jon replies or can make a journey with Sansa. However, where is Frey and his men to support him? What of the other 3 northern houses to join the cause? Manderlys played a big part in the internal squabbles in the fifth book, but are nowhere to be found here. What about getting a real wife this time instead of a Kingslayer? With Castle Black so far north, he has to bide his time and use House Umber to encroach on Castle Black and see if Jon Snow is harboring Sansa instead of assuming.  I don't see Ramsey rushing into "Bastard-bowl" until he exhausts all diplomatic measures since his forces might not win so easily and his actions might ruffle too many feathers and bring about an alliance to bring him down.  Plus seeing Wun Wun the Giant might scare his soldiers a tad.


Bran - Still learning with the Three Eyed Raven as the Ghost of Christmas Past. Sees the path his father took against King's Aegon's honor guard led by Ser Arthur Dayne at the Tower of Joy. His path is to backfill the history of the story of Lysanna and Rhaeger and the birth of Jon and the secret sworn by Eddard.

Bran S6E5 prediction: Find out that Jon was born to Lysanna and hear of the vow Ned took to his dying sister. Eventually he will learn to talk through the trees in each House with the raven messengers and warg through them to gather much intelligence of who lives and where. Maybe even be able to telepathically communicate to others. It has been hinted that Theon goes to the tree at Winterfell and gets a vision in the books.  Theon's arc in the show puts him far away from Winterfell and in Pyke. Perhaps Bran sends visions to Rickon who is praying at the weirwood tree at Winterfell and runs off to find Jon to tell him who his real parents are.

Jon
He can remember up to the time of his murder.  What memories did he lose? Usually it was the oldest first? Why just up and walk about from Davos and Melisandre and go alone?  I hope Tormund and crew catch up to him and become his protectors. He has no idea Sansa is in trouble and I doubt he is going to stomp all the way to King's Landing. The last he knows, Sansa was in King's Landing married to the Imp. I doubt he has news that Sansa fled the capitol. He thinks Bran and Rickon are dead since Theon stormed Winterfell and displayed two bodies as proof.  He has no idea the Wildlings are going to battle Umber and Bolton. He has no intelligence on the field.  What is his next move?  Did Jon just run away with his wolf in tow? The last shot was him walking east from the lift toward an archway with a storage bunker dead-end beneath the barracks and not the west gate, and leading into the east bailey with the tunnel or main gate, which is directly behind him and all fixed as good as new.  Was he the Oathbreaker? He knows Stannis couldn't defeat the Boltons and he has no way to unite all the Wildlings to go after Ramsey. The Wildlings will tell Jon it's not their fight. Plus, Jon already spurred the Wildlings to resist the invasion of the White Walkers by repairing the towers. Jon has no title as far as he knows, no House, no authority. So what is he going to clean up by Davos' reckoning? Anyway, the Night's Watch has about 10 men left besides Edd?

Jon S6E4 prediction: Followed by Davos, Melisandre (notice that she is now cold and needs a cloak where before the resurrection she only needed a open neck dress unless she is planning on travel), Tormund and crew, they need to build a defense against the White Walkers.  He has no other apparent enemy to engage, or quarrel with the Bolton's to take revenge for the Red Wedding as it was hosted by House Frey. He has heard his half-brother Robb slain, and has no idea that Bran, Arya or Rickon could be alive.  Sansa is held hostage as wife of Tyrion in his reality. White Walkers are more a threat than Frey at the moment.  I don't see Jon getting involved in bringing down Lords and Houses as he has no intel, no maester and no news.  Castle Black is not his to command, or to fight against Bolton.  There have been no reports of Wildlings raiding or northern lords attacking Wildling settlements since they should be repairing 19 other towers on the Wall. Even if Jon knows Bolton has Sansa, she doesn't appear to be in any danger since she is betrothed to the younger Bolton heir.  And how will word of Rickon being held prisoner by Bolton wind up in Jon's ear? News only travels by crow and I doubt that Jon will miss the Pink Letter (with a piece of Rickon's flayed ear) from Ramsey by storming off half-cocked and without a plan. Jon has no means to save Sansa or Rickon and it would be suicide to walk up to Winterfell and demand his half-brother or sister's release.  Can Jon sneak around Winterfell undetected and rescue Rickon? Somehow Bran will make contact with Jon and clue him in as to his real Targaryen heritage through meditating at a weirwood tree. I predict that Jon will not marry Dany, due to Rhaeger's heritage making Dany his Auntie. With the knowledge of being a Targaryen, how does that actually help Jon build an army?  Starks helped bring down the House of Targaryen and the Mad King.  And his own father Rhaegar started a war over Lysanna so that doesn't prompt much pride in being a Targaryen either.  I don't think Jon spouting his heritage is a boon unless he only sticks to the Stark side and hides the Targaryen blood.  I see Jon leading the Wildlings (with Melisandre tagging along as the pocket cleric for resurrection) and preparing the Walls' defenses and towers against the White Walkers, while Sansa and Davos goes to House Mormont on Bear Island (Stannis tipped this hand to Jon with a letter stating Mormont won't back Bolton), and Brienne tries to get to White Harbor and gauge if Lord Wyman Manderly will consider saving Sansa Stark, joining with the Vale, and seek revenge for death of his son at the Red Wedding .  Ramsey sends the Pink Letter to Castle Black, stating he wants Jon to bring Sansa and Theon back and he has Rickon hostage for exchange if he does behaves himself.  Sansa will arrive shortly after the Pink Letter and send a raven to the Vale saying she escaped and Ramsey is a nasty evil bastard and chasing her to Jon and Castle Black. This spurs Petyr to go to Robin and Royce and convince them to raise an army to march north, meeting up to Brienne at White Harbor and completely avoiding Moat Cailin.

Samwell & Gilly & baby Sam - Time filler. Going by ship to Oldtown, so they can drop Gilly off with his parents in Horn Hill instead and then he can go to become a Maester.  Fairly predictable and hardly earth shattering events. With Samwell having first hand knowledge of White Walkers, will he be able to convince the college of their coming after a thousand years of slumber?

Samwell E6E4 prediction: Quick argument with his father Lord Tarly, but the lord accepts Gilly into his home.  Sam will study at college and hopefully someone will believe him the sky is falling.

Sansa - where's Sansa and Brienne / Podrick? I hope they are not going North, and actually being smart and retreating south down the river. Since they are not seen in E4, the E3 prediction still holds. However with the E4 trailer, we see Sansa and Brienne entering a gate in a northern winterland.  Castle Black has no gate anymore since the giant Wun Wun bashed it down, but it should take 30 days to cover 600 miles by horse in winter, so maybe its some other House, possibly Hornwood.  And the curious question, is Sansa pregnant with Ramsey's child?  Other trailers show Davos and Sansa in House Mormont with Lyanna in Castle Bear.  The only connection would be that Jon has the old Bear's Valyrian steel sword Longclaw and that might be the link to why Davos and Sansa could be there as hinted by trailers. I doubt House Mormont has a stash of Valyrian blades hidden in their armory to fight the White Walkers so Jon can ask for them. Would Sansa have sent Brienne to the Vale or maybe a raven to get word to Baelish that the marriage to Ramsey did not go as happily as planned?

A meeting at Castle Black will be interesting between Brienne, Davos, Sansa and Melisandre.
Melisandre met Catelyn and tried to seduce Jon (who denied her advances), and now meets the daughter / sister.
Brienne knows Melisandre is the Red Witch that created a shadow wraith with the likeness of Stannis to kill her liege Lord Renly. How will Brienne be held in check?
Brienne knows Davos as Stannis' Hand.
Brienne will most honorably state she killed Stannis and not the Boltons.  That should hurt Davos, but Melisandre already gave up hope on Stannis so she'll be nonplussed.
A lot of awkwardness at the meeting since they need to ally, but Brienne has major reasons to hate Davos and Melisandre.
Jon and Brienne can compare Valyrian swords: Longclaw vs. Oathkeeper
Brienne might tell Sansa that she ran into Arya  in the Riverlands and might be ordered to go find her.
It would then also make sense that Sansa would send Brienne to White Harbor after finding Arya to get allegiance of House Manderly and then to the Vale for support from House Arryn, to avoid tensions between her and Stannis' Old Guard.

Theon Greyjoy - where's Theon? It seems Umber beat him to Winterfell, so he was not captured. So maybe he is going home to Pyke and the Iron Islands.  E4 Trailer confirms him on a boat ride (I guess he traded the horse for passage?) in a storm and meeting an upset Yara, so he teleports home in record time. Theon is in no mental shape (nor able to produce a heir) to toss his hat in for King of the Iron Isles. His arrival will upset Eulon and perhaps he will need to run before he is assassinated, or Yara and Theon figure out Eulon killed their father Balon and repay the favor and put their uncle to ground. Perhaps Eulon will win the kingsmoot since Theon backs his uncle instead of challenging him, which tics Yara off after yet another betrayal.  Then will Eulon be the one to sail to Essos and get Dany and her armies?

Yara Greyjoy - where's Yara when Balon gets killed and how soon is the kingsmoot? Uncle Euron going to get the vote over Yara? Balon's murderer is not going to be figured out? A man just falls over a rope bridge and there's no investigation and no witnesses?

Arya - So Arya finally got her sight back and learned how to blind fight. She appears to have tricked Jaqen H'ghar that she believes she is no one.  Usually he can tell she is lying, as can her young female staff trainer Waif.  So is she really convincing?  Or is he allowing her a pass knowing she is bluffing? She only listed 3 and removed the Hound from her list (since she believed Brienne killed him while she felt lucky to have him protect her even though she was his captive). With Mace Tyrell back in King's Landing and no mention of the Bank of Braavos extending a loan, Arya can't stowaway back to Westeros that way.  What does Jaqen plan next for Arya, or is she her own agent? Is the Hound really dead or left for dead and somehow linked to the House of Black and White?  I'd have to go with dead and no link to Jaqen since his brother is Clegane and it's well established fact Gregor smashed in his face with a hot pokey stick. Even though the Waif mentioned the "Hound", how does she even know of him on her hit list unless Arya mentioned it in the past? Or does the waif know Arya's secret hit list and knows the "Hound" is still alive and is just feeling Arya out? I'm betting Arya talks in her sleep and mentioned names and the Waif is just clued in.

Arya S6E4 prediction: She doesn't have many live targets on her list except for Cersei and the Mountain, but technically he is dead, and Franken-Gregor might be a bit too tough now. She did not mention Melisandre and Meli might be hard to find, and if so found, might be in the company of Jon and force her to stay her hand. Also, the executioner of Ned, Ilyn Payne was not mentioned so he should be nixed before Cersei in King's Landing.  So far, the Sand Snakes have her beat on a bead tracking Cersei if they did indeed jump ship in Blackwater Bay and sneak into King's Landing for more dirty work.

Tommen- as predicted, this youngling is easily swayed by a much craftier politician within the mind of the High Sparrow.  Tommen will be pulled back and forth between Cersei and the Sparrow. Without Tywin to lead him, why isn't Kevan seen doing more whispering in the King's ear? Why is Tommen absent from a small council meeting?

Kevan - Is he the regent King? He is the Hand of the King, but very little seems to be getting done. 
Olena - Why is she even on the council? Being the mother of the Queen doesn't entitle her to rule.  Besides, what seat is she taking? Mace, her son, is the Master of Coin so that makes sense.
Cersei / Jamie - these two are joined at the hip, as well as being twins. Uncle Kevan doesn't answer Cersei's plea for Myrcella's murderers.  How does Jamie know Prince Doran of Dorne is dead? Or even if Trystane is dead? I don't see how the King's spy network under Dr. FrankenQyburn can get news that fast of Prince Doran's demise.  They have no clue Trystane is dead and that was done in a Dornish ship within their own sea taking a trip back to Sunspear.  With Myrcella dying at the beginning of the trip, the marriage is off and Trystane was just along for the ride. Jamie or Bron disembarked before Trystane's murder happened. The show runners messed up with Jamie knowing more than he should. They have no clue that Ellaria staged a coup and is gunning for King's Landing.  Cersei is doubting House Tyrell by asking for the new spymaster to gather intel on Highgarden. And the spy on the north, means she overlooks the Vale. Will Cersei and Jamie use Frankenmountain (Ser Robert Strong, notably huge just like Gregor, and still Cersei's protector, doesn't eat or drink, nor talk but he can glare even at Jamie) to off Olena and Pycelle and Kevan? My money is on using Clegane (as the tank with a Lannister-Tyrell support alliance ) to execute the High Sparrow, and someone else will do the dirty work for Cersei on removing Kevan from office.

Cersei S6E4 prediction - Once she finds out Tommen is ineffectual against the High Sparrow, she will internalize her anger and take matters into her own hands. She will demand Tommen to send a contingent force to Sunspear and demand tribute from Dorne.  It will suck for Jamie when she has a lightbulb moment figuring out Varys and Tyrion leave King's Landing around the same day as the death of her father Tywin, and think Jamie might have had a hand (not the golden one) in Tyrion's escape from the jail, while Varys spirited him out of port. Cersei will then have Jamie to blame for Tywin's death, along with Tyrion.  Which then leaves Cersei to question how did Tyrion actually get the poison for Joffrey and from whom since the necklace that Sansa wore contained the poison? Sansa has no way to buy jewelry so it was all Tyrion's (actually Olena's) planning and using Sansa as an unwitting conspirator. Since Dorne and the Martell's are known to ply poison, perhaps Ellaria or Oberyn conspired with Tyrion, which might make sense since Oberyn stood up as Tyrion's champion at the trial. Looks like Olena and Petyr outwitted all the other players, pinning it on Tyrion. Further, Cersei would flip out if she found out that Jamie gave Brienne a Valyrian sword along with instructions to find Sansa. Brienne eventually finds Sansa with Baelish, so this puts a question as to why did Baelish take Sansa if Tyrion is to blame with Dornish help. If Cersei finds out from Brienne or Sansa, Baelish is implicated in having a hand in the kingslaying as well.
Jamie S6E4 prediction - He will remain Tommen's Kingsguard and loyal protector, unable to leave his side. He is more the battle strategist, while Kevan is the quiet politician.

Queen Margaery - waste away in prison. When will she give penance?

Lady Olena - she has a very smart mouth.  Expect it to be silenced soon enough.

There is no talk of how bankrupt the King is.  The Kingdom is in a circle jerk and if they don't get their act together, Dorne will strike first while they bicker.  I don't see Cersei or Jamie killing anyone outright as that was not Tywin's modus operandi and Joffrey was a complete screw up. 

Kevan S6E4 prediction - Still waiting to get assassinated by a Sand Snake or Gregor.  Since the show runners diverted from the books where "sweet plump" Varys is the assassin, and Cersei has been given the boot on the small council, it would appear the former Queen send someone to fix Kevan's attitude permanently.
Pycelle S6E4 prediction - Still waiting to get assassinated by a Sand Snake
Cersei S6E4 prediction - fume at Tommen. She has picked Gregor as her champion for the Trial. Who will the High Sparrow pick? Rumors are that the "Hound", Sandor Clegane, will be standing again and be part of the "Clegane-bowl", that he survived against Arya / Brienne and has lived quietly as a grave-digger on an Isle of the Faith (according to the books). Another prophecy is that Cersei is killed by a "younger brother" Volanquar - which would mean Sandor, the younger brother of Gregor, wins the trial by combat and causes Cersei's execution.
Jamie S6E4 prediction - convince Tommen to strike at Dorne for Myrcella's murder, or at least prepare for war
Margaery S6E4 prediction - sit in her sell and refuse to admit any wrongdoing and not go on her Walk of Shame unlike Cersei
Olena S6E4 prediction - take a crack at the High Sparrow to loosen his grip on the Queen yet fail even though well debated. Cersei looks like from E4 trailer they will team up to plot the fall of the High Septon, and Clegane might be going on a rampage.  E4 is Book of the Stranger, which is one of the old Gods, that of Death and the Unknown, so the title could refer to this setup. Can Loras' Tyrell former bannermen, Franken-mountain, Kingsguard and Jamie overthrow the High Sparrow and purge the High Septon, freeing Loras and Margaery? What a spectacle that would be.
Frankenmountain S6E4 prediction - Kill Nymeria / Sand Snakes after Kevan and Pycelle are murdered
Tommen S6E4 prediction - listen and learn and unable to order Kevan to prepare for Dorne. Luckily, Kevan will be removed and Jamie and Cersei can move forward with plans against Sunspear.
Mace S6E4 prediction - still remain a sycophant to Olena and won't allow raising an army against Dorne for mere personal reasons.
Qyburn S6E4 prediction - even though he may think offering (poisoned necromantic) sugar plums might win him Varys' old bird spy network, they might still be loyal the Varys in the end, messing up any intelligence gained for Qyburn, while feeding the pure version to Varys. Little birds will not commit murder. Varys would not just give up his birds and has contingencies on coming back with Dany. Also, we don't know if Varys knows of Petyr's and Olena's plot to commit the regicide of Joffrey, but I'm sure he would have agreed that it was time to put that king down.
Bron S6E4 prediction - did he marry? Maybe his tale is over and he retired from the limelight.

Ellaria / Sand Snakes - Not seen at all E3. What are they up to?

Ellaria S6E4 prediction: Gathering forces for a swift and pre-emptive strike against King's Landing and against Highgarden.
Sand Snakes S6E4 prediction: More assassinations.  Nymeria to go after Lannisters.  The others to go after Doran's wife Mellario in Norvos.  Will Franken-mountain protect Cersei from the snakes? Maybe the snakes get to Kevan and Pycelle first since they actually are on the ruling council and are worth more as military targets to be removed before more personal revenge? Since not seen in E4, E3 prediction still stands.

Danaerys - stuck in the temple of khaleesi widows in Vaes Dothrak, she is striped of all rank and title. Being the unburnt means little to the other women here and the pecking order. Will she learn anything about ruling people? The Khal's meet to wage war while the widows stand idle and chatter. There's a teaser of a burnt hut which could possibly mean Dany meets the chiefs (Dosh Khaleen) and proves that she is the Unburnt by causing a fire in the huge tent (Drogon's dragon breath, Dany or maybe Jorah tips over a brazier) and commanding the respect of the Khal's when she is revealed to be unscathed. With Drogon's arrival, Dany mounting the dragon to revive the prophecy of the Stallion That Mounts the World.  Maybe Jorah in a final act before succumbing to Dragonscale causes the fire, killing himself in sacrifice since Dany cannot heal him. Perhaps the Red Priest in Mereen could have. Long term there is a prediction that Eulon Greyjoy bring ships all the way around the world to the East to Volantis in order to find Dany and bring her back to Westeros to cause more chaos.

Danaerys S6E4 prediction: Learn how to bite her tongue and wash rags. If I were her, I would start praying for my Dragon Children to come save me and hope that can here my telepathic cries for rescue.  With all the Khalasari in one place, there is a prophesy that there will be one Khal to unite the Dothraki as one. Drogon is ready and healed, and comes to save Dany and let her ride on his back to make the Dothraki warriors bend the knee (which they swear they never do for a king). Dany is probably brought to the tent of the Dosh Kaleen and a punishment sentence is passed for her failing to immediately reside in Vaes Dothrak. Perhaps Jorah and Daario are caught and brought in chains beside her to stand judgement as well. It is forbidden to draw blood in Vaes Dothrak and Viserys was eventually killed by Khal Drogo for this sin.

Jorah / Daario - not seen in E3. They are following the trail. Will they come to the rescue of Dany once again? Will Jorah spread Dragonscale among the Dothraki? Wouldn't that be special.

Jorah S6E4 prediction: ride along with Daario and slip into Daes Thraki and seek out the khaleesi. The E4 trailer appears to confirm this and some fighting action with Jorah facing off against a Dothraki and maybe since it's hand to hand, he spreads the plague.

Tyrion - this was just painful to watch; worse than paint drying.  He let the two dragons free and no exposition of what happened next.  Missi and Greyworm are as boring as two logs rotting. They don't drink and they don't play "innocent" games. What's a royal ambassador to do? So unlike the books, there is no Yunkai siege on Mereen, just an internal strife versus the Sons of the Harpy. Once they all find out Yunkai, Astapor and Volantis are allied against Mereen, the boring stiffs are eager to take the fight to them showing their amazing tactical prowess.  Move against one city in a siege, one of the other three take your base, and then the third comes up your rear end, cutting off your supplies on the field and then cuts off your neck. Grey worm, please stop trying to play general.

Tyrion S6E4 prediction: Play more silly word games about playing games and stalling the natives. Soon, soon he says in the E4 trailer. Yawners.  After killing Tywin on the privy, it's been all downhill for Tyrion.  I see why Tyrion would be capable of patricide under the circumstances that were presented, but for him to have time during a prison break and know the inner secret labyrinth to find the Hand's bedchamber behind the walls of the Red Castle is a bit far-fetched. Now he is hand waving to former slaves for time.

Varys - pays off the rebel Vala to get pretty obvious information that Yunkai and Astapor are behind funding the Harpies. Could have just had her tortured and get the same intel and cheaper.  What does he hope to gain by saving her life and shipping her off to some other free-city.  Oh wait, there are no ships left so she's got a long walk with that sack of gold, all by her lonesome with her child and no bodyguard. Thieves will just slice her up and take her newfound wealth in two steps out the gate. Varys thinks she will work for him in a new town as a spy? She won't last long as a bag of coins will draw dangerous attention and her demise from a third party. I don't think this was a wise move for either her to him to bargain. He has a distaste for torture and hanging traitors, but ethics aside, this was a dumb move. Why didn't Varys bring in Tyrion to play bad cop against his good cop?

Varys S6E4 prediction: I don't see how Varys can outmaneuver the Sons of the Harpy politically. This is a grassroots campaign. The rebel told him the queen and her retinue are foreigners and don't understand Mereen's people. Even if Varys could pay off the Harpies, I don't see them so easily defeated or marginalized to go away. Mereen is a lost cause.  They need to get Dany with command of her three dragons and that will make the people shiver and quake in awe to fall in line.  Imminent death is the only tactic they have since being nice will not do it.

Petyr Baelish - once again, Petyr is off screen.  He has no threats but who's strings will he pull? The north is busy with Wildlings.  The Iron Islands are in no position to restart battle with Bolton. The White Walker menace is not even a whisper.  Meanwhile Highgarden and Casterly Rock are allied with fates ensnared and shared.  If one falls, so will the other.  Dorne has not yet tipped its hand, and Dany is in no position to launch an attack on Westeros.  Looks like Boltons are a lock in the north, and Lannister / Tyrell alliance is solid in the south, and will repel any Dornish invaders.  No one has called for help, so his army can rest up. Also, if the Lannisters find out Bolton married Sansa, they have to start investigating how she ended up there and who aided her?  If Lannisters get Sansa back, Petyr is toast.  Sansa being alive is counter to Cersei's wishes as Sansa is suspect in Joffrey's poisoning as part of Tyrion's betrayal as Kin and Kingslayer.  I think Petyr messed up with his master plan since Bolton will talk and say Baelish gave him Sansa. Or if they get Sansa, I'm sure she will give Petyr up as her savior from King's Landing. Petyr has to pray both of them die before they are interrogated and pressed for answers. He left too many loose ends able to bite him in the end. Very sloppy, Littlefinger... tsk tsk

Petyr S6E4 prediction - Not much for Petyr to do except exposition since he's so far away from all the action. The E4 trailer shows him explaining Sansa has escaped and that Bolton has given chase and she will be in grave danger.  Robin Arryn is under the wing and tutelage of Lord Yohn Royce of Runestone, so Littlefinger has made a special visit to the east coast.  Being miles and miles away, Petyr can't do anything directly and has no agents in the north to do his bidding. Can he convince Royce to commit troops to march north against Bolton? Royce is pro-Stark and anti-Lannister, and Baelish has been requested by Cersei to reign in the Boltons.  Can Petyr sway Royce, citing that Sansa is family and must be rescued since Catelyn (Stark) and Lysa (Arryn) were Tully sisters.  In the process also saving Jon and the Wildlings against a Bolton assault when Sansa is not given back at Castle Black?  First, should the Vale army go through Moat Cailin and the marsh which is hardy and defensible (although not impenetrable since Greyjoy took it from Bolton), or sail directly to White Harbor and run around the moat?

Saturday, May 7, 2016

Season 6 Episode 2 - Home - Post Game Wrap-up

First things first.  Where are the missing major players.

Lord Petyr Baelish - Lord of the Vale
  What has Lord Littlefinger been up to?  He has secured alliances with the Lannisters and the Boltons and his castle (the Eyrie) in the Vale of Arryn is one of the most defensible in all of history which has never fallen to seige. He manuevers to rid of his opponents and use them. Sansa was used to secure the North, but that does not appear to be such a bad thing.  Sacrificing Ned Stark was used to secure King's Landing. So far no Stark knows of Baelish's hand in that deceit.  Also no one really knows Baelish's hand in Joffrey's regicide (which would also implicate House Tyrell due to Olena's part).  Mace has been sent to Braavos to secure debt for the Lannisters.  The bank of Braavos has already lost of huge investment in the Seven Kingdoms by betting on Stannis (and they can thank Ser Davos Seaworth for that). With the bank tapped out, Mace is coming home with empty pockets and the Lannister's fortunes are soon running out. With the Queen Lady Margaery Tyrell locked up by the High Septon, the winds of change blow against Mace keeping favor with the Lannisters and more with Baelish.  However Petyr does not want the throne and just loves to keep Houses in disorder and disarray fighting each other so he can appear the savior.  I do not suspect that when Winter comes, it will get close to the Vale as Winterfell appears to be were the White Walkers will be stopped (the Tree which links ancient Wargs together might have a reason after all). Petyr will be quite happy pulling strings and not getting his hands dirty, and since very little action can be centered about the Vale, his dramatic role is reduced if only to give clues and exposition - in order words - boring screen time with too much talking.  Oh and Petyr has a thing for Sansa since he wanted Catelyn Stark and was denied so maybe we might see him manuever to get her within his clutches again.  After all, he owes her a debt of gratitude lieing to save his neck when he tossed Lady Lysa Arryn (sister of Catelyn - and widow of Robert Baratheon's Hand, Lord Jon Arryn - which also happens to be the name for Jon Snow and rarely any characters share the first name, but I digress), but then again Sansa owes Petyr for saving her from being tossed out first. Are both their  affections for each other in the May-December romance real or shrouded by the Stockholm syndrome and meglomania?  I hope Sansa wakes up to see he is Uncle Petyr and a snake to be kept close and used instead of executed.

S6E3 prediction: Nothing Much Ado

Co-Regent Ser  Kevan Lannister
  Supposedly at the end of Book 5, Kevan is assassinated by Varys, but in the show at the end of season 5, this did not happen.  The point was to weaken the trusted leadership and guidance Tommen so much needs, since Cersei is just not up to the task after being reviled by the High Sept. He is due for a scene in S6E3 - Oathbreaker. So I expect him to meet a quick and painless end.  This should throw house Lannister into further chaos and disarray with lack of good and cunning counsel; the old adage of being the "man" behind the Man. With an invasion from the East looking further and further away lead by Dani Targaryen and her cohorts, Tommen has more time to shore up his defenses for Dorne's manuevering.  Perhaps Mace comes back from Braavos and does the deed with help from Olena instead of Varys?  They already disposed of one Lannister and a King at that, so a Regent should be easy pickings at this point of their murdering careers. I doubt Olena and Mace would move against Kevan, but he must perish.

Kevan S6E3 prediction - the Sand Snakes first victim, shortly followed by Pycelle joining him in taking a dirt nap.

Now to other musings.

Lord Ramsey Bolton - I cannot believe Lord Roose had no second in command to defend against such treachery and step in and whack Ramsey for such impudence in the act of regicide.  What is Lord Karstark thinking to just stand there and watch? To a psychopath, allies are just pawns to be used and discarded at a whim, even if they are still quite worthy pieces on the board. Since Karstark is a witness, he is next in line to be put to ground. This, to me, is a gaping problem of suspension of disbelief that would allow Ramsey to usurp the mantle of Lord of the North.  Usually such change of circumstances require acknowledgement from the Crown.  For Tommen to hear that Roose was poisoned in Winterfell by some infiltrator after Stannis was killed and his army routed is preposterious and laughable. This quick disaster is unplausible and should be doubly so in the eyes of King's Landing's regent council of Revan, Cersei and Jamie. Ramsey should not get the ascension since if his father could be so easily poisoned, surely Ramsey will follow shortly in his father's step to an early poisoned grave. I find it hard to believe an official investigation from the King will not be done to verify such tale of Roose's demise.  And if it is done, how is Ramsey going to hide the knife wound in the chest of Roose to a Maester unless he plans to kill a Maester doing the autopsy as well. How many must fall dead around Ramsey to start being suspicious that being around Ramsey is bad for your health? Ramsey can threaten a servant with silence or cover-up with a lie of the crime of regicide, but for Lord Karstark to roll over as a Ramsey's lapdog (and not even directed to be in on the conspiracy) and not defend Roose is just not believable.  Given the shows need to have the bad guys around as long as possible, I distastefully think Ramsey will be around for much of season 6, if not well into season 7 when he gets his comeuppance and brutal downfall.

Ramsey S6E3 prediction - prepare an army to besiege Castle Black and chase after Lady Sansa for a month in the winter wilderness, combing the forests in a massive manhunt. If he makes it to Castle Black's gates, he will demand Sansa.  Will Jon even be there when he does make this request? Jon has no quarrel with Ramsey to deny him if Sansa is there since he would defy the Iron Throne by doing so as Bolton has the backing of Tommen.  The Wildlings have no quarrel with Bolton to need to fight his army.  This will be a stonewall stalemate. Jon can tell Ramsey that Sansa is not here, come in and see for yourself and Ramsey can pound sand.  Jon is best to warn Ramsey that the White Walkers are coming and hold council and Tormund can vouch that Jon killed a White Walker lieutenant.  There is a bigger fight than between Castle Black and the Boltons.  There is no reason for Jon to relish in revenge on Ramsey.  After all it was Theon who killed his brothers at Winterfell. And it was the Frey's who killed Rob at the Red Wedding. And Jon has no love lost for Catelyn Stark as she merely tolerated his presence as a bastard of Ned's to remind her of his adultery.  Bolton has to secure the north and he has it locked up as far as he's concerned.  There's no fight to be had with the Wildlings.  They need to be strange bedfellows once again, reinforce and defend the 20 tower walls from the incoming White Walkers and protect the Realm. Bolton can turn around and become a hero (at least to the Realm's eye) after all.  Even if Lannister's fall, Bolton has the backing of Baelish with the gift of Sansa Stark and Petyr does not enjoy outright war and battle.

Reek - Lord Theon Greyjoy - He states he is going home, but does that mean the Iron Islands.  There is no way he can make it back before the kingsmoot by horse from outside Winterfell in time.  He might be looking for retribution and salvation by taking on his captor Ramsey.  I fear Theon is going to attempt to sacrifice himself to find a way to get close to Ramsey in order to assassinate him, but is going to meet his own end and be ineffective and ridiculed while slowly being flayed.

Reek S6E3 prediction - run back to Ramsey and beg forgiveness and be taken back as a pet. My smart money would be for Ramsey just to flay him on sight, but for theatrics Ramsey will taunt Theon to try to strike at him and then close the trap and make him suffer a slow torturous death. Ramsey has to prove how invincible he is by allowing his opponent an attempt to stab him first.

The other two dragons - Viserion and Rhaegal - are now free in Mereen by the hand of Tyrion "Don't Eat the Help" Lannister.  When these two dragons "go native" and eat all the sheep and little children (remember how one shepherd blamed Drogon for torching his daughter to a crispy pile of bones when beseeching Daenerys) who is going to be blamed?  The rulers of Mereen.  A  huge civil war was not bad enough with the Harpies, so why not throw the rest of your citizens to the dogs. As it is, many townsfolk are probably fleeing as fast as they can.  Supposedly Mereen is surrounded by land forces (hired mercenaries led by free cities of Yunkai and Astapor), blockaded by a combined navy of the Masters and the plague has broken out (from the books).  But none of this is being shown in the HBO show. Now the fleet in Mereen's port has all but been put to the torch.  There is no show of the legions beseiging the walls of the city waiting to pounce.  There is just no staging here.  Hope S6E3 gives us a grand tour of Vis and Rhaegal swooping down and decimating the troops outside Mereen, but that would be suicide for them.  We have seen Drogon get wounded badly from just a few royal guards with spears.  The dragons are not ready to torch the enemies of Daenerys.  Dragons are not known to be communal creatures, so I would expect them to find a nice quiet spot to hide out in the mountains, eat some sheep, waylay some easy caravans and collect treasure. So much for setting up Jon and Tyrion as the other two dragon riders (unless Bran is going to warg all three and link them up somehow to communicate and coordinate).

Lady Sansa Stark - finally she is free, but for how long.  How can we not cheer for her rescuers, Brienne and Podrick against Bolton's nasty vile hunters.  Will she go to Castle Black and find refuge at the Wall expecting her half-brother Jon to shelter her?  Tactically, that is the wrong choice as it is the expected move and Bolton will no doubt march 600 miles in chase with an array of his army for his Queen and need for an heir and solification of his position among the Lords of the North. If I were Bolton, I would bid my time and send out spies to see where she lands up. Who can Sansa trust? Can she trust any of the Northern minor Houses?  Since circumnavigating Winterfell and slipping south to the Vale will be met with resistance from Brienne, the route leads east or west or Castle Black, hunting for game in the height of winter for food and freezing rivers for water.  If the trek is 600 by road, they can maybe take it by horse in 20 miles a day at bestdue to the prevailing conditions of provisions and weather, which means a month of travel. Ramsey's army on foot to fare no better and not catch up.  With Deepwood Motte retaken in the west by House Glover (possibly still loyal to Stark but unknown where their loyalties lie) and deeply wounded and rebuilding from the Ironborn / Greyjoy invasion, and the Dreadfort to the east (seat of House Bolton), the smart move would be to follow the river to White Harbor and avoiding Moat Cailin (which they all know fell to Bolton as they gave chase north).  With Wendel Manderly killed by treachery of the Boltons and Freys at the Red Wedding, House Manderly might considered to give aid to a Stark and hide her.

Sansa S6E3 prediction - The right move would be to go south along the river to White Harbor and seek protection with House Manderley. Going north is suicidal, frought with peril of winter and lack of provisions and easily obtainable potable water over 600 miles on either the Kings Road or heavy forest and hills. If Brienne was a worthy tactician, I would put my money on doing the thing my opponent would not expect me to do and that would be to circle back south with the horses, build a raft and cruise down a river.  If Sansa & co. think they can march north and not die of dehydration and hypothermia, while leaving a trail of fires, snowsteps and dung heaps to easily be tracked, the writers need a lesson in wilderness training.  Podrick can hardly start a fire and is a city slicker and just not a rough-it rider survivialist and neither is Sansa.  Brienne survived with Jamie with her quarry and men on her tail, but that wasn't easy during warmer climes.


Sand Snakes -
Where to start with the abysmal mess.  Honestly,  the situation in Dorne is a mess and the sloppy writing just keeps ditching the ditch deeper and deeper which the sense of belief gets trampeled on.
You expect the show watchers to believe that two stowaways (Obara and Nymeria) manage to keep hidden throughout an entire trip at sea from Sunspear to King's Landing, full of vitality and strength, able to sneak into Trystane's quarters past any crew. First, Trystane would have a standing royal bodyguard since he is a heir apparent traveling abroad with Jamie Lannister and Bronn, two known assailants of his from days ago. The suspension of belief has been clobbered that he has no guards. Then, these two walk snippy snakes about the ship without being waylaid by any crew into the bowels of the royal cabins undetected.  Since the girls were not on the manifest, everyone would know they disobeyed Doran's orders by being aboard.  And sneaking around with a 10 foot spear on a ship in cramped quarters and carry it around unnoticed.  This is writing with putty and seeing what sticks on the wall.
  Prince Doran Martell of Dorne meets an untimely brutal end from Ellaria at her hands and no one stops him because Areo Hotah is surprised as well.  I cannot buy that Areo the bodyguard is killed in under one second and collapses so fast without a rebuke or  rebuttal.  For Ellaria to get vengence against her own brother for not moving against the Lannisters for the death of her aunt-in-law Elia (wife of Rhaegar Targyraen who started this whole mess in the first place) and Oberyn (but that was Ober's choice and that is how the game is played so it was not outright murder, plotted and planned - Oby put himself in that position trying to avenge his aunt as well and Doran did not put him in danger), I find is such a weak argument for her actions.  Ellaria could easily have left Doran in place while scheming behind his back using her children as little birds.  Now with the murder of Trystane to remove any claim to the Sunspear throne, and the poisoned death of Myrcella, House Uller better be aware, aligned, allied and fully committed to taking on House Lannister head on. Having a two fronted conflict is doom for Dorne.  With Lannisport to the west and King's Landing to the east, Dorne would have to split naval forces since if they move against one city, the other will counter (not to mention additional forces of House Tyrell at Highgarden).  Even with King's Landing closer to launch from Sunspear, Lannister & Tyrell forces could box Dorne in at the Dornish Marches and then force a naval blockade of the capital. I do not see any general or admiral taking orders from Ellaria once they find out it was a bloody coup, since she is not blood related and just a royal consort.  The army and naval forces will falter because I suspect she has no actual strategic military plan.
  I find it hilarious she expects her two daughters to assassinate Cersei, Jamie and Tommen on their own in a hostile capital city with royal guards and militant Sparrows crawling all over and on high alert. The Dorne ship will leave port and set sail to Sunspear leaving Obara and Nymeria to fend for themselves as they had no idea they were on board to begin with.  That leaves the two sisters stranded and fending for themselves and trying to find underground support in King's Landing to survive and hide.  The crew of the ship will eventually realize Trystane is dead, and they have no Lannister suspects since they left before it happened.  Will the sisters get off the ship and swim to shore? How do they expect to bluster their way off the ship and commandeer a rowboat?  Like I said before, this whole plan is laughable.
  With the murder of Myrcella out in the open and obvious for all to see the hand Dorne played, the wrath coming will be quite substantial and I doubt Ellaria is even prepared for the storm.  Even though the Lannister's will never find out that Trystane is dead since they left a Dorne ship, the princess' murder is cause enough for revenge. Ellaria is just a consort of Oberyn and from House Uller all the way west from Hellholt.  Her claim for revenge for Elia, the mother of Oberyn and Doran, is tenuous at best, laughable at most. She even saw Clegane fall to Oberyn and suspect his poison killed the Mountain even though he himself was slain.  The debt of death should have been paid in full.  As far as everyone in public knows, Clegane won but succumbed to his wounding from Oberyn. For Ellaria to want to usurp the throne of Dorne from House Martell by removing all its lineage because House Martell has proven that it is weak is plausable. However other houses and the elite will have something to say about Ellaria's actions.  In Norvos, a free city and across the see, Doran's wife Mellario is still alive and kicking even though estranged. Ellaria might move against Mellario with an assassin in place to strike her before news about Doran's death will be known. Mellario might have claim to the throne of Dorne so this is a loose end. Killing Mellario might have a polarizing effect in Norvos to bring about revenge on Dorne.  With so many enemies and no allies, the Sand Snake rebellion should be crushed rather quickly.  Mellario will simply stay (and re-establishe) as Queen (even though  titled as Princess) and chose a new husband and make more heirs, thus unifying both Dorne and Norvos. Mellario might attempt to raise forces from Norvos and bring them to bear against Sunspear, possibly making an alliance of the free-city and Dorne, bringing it militarily closer to the Seven Kingdoms.

Ellaria S6E3 prediction - has to move swiftly to assassinate Mellario in Norvos via her agents (sending one of her other 3 sand snakes) and secure her position as Queen. I'm not sure how a bloody knife in her hand is going to placate the masses who loved Prince Doran's rule.  Title is nothing without support as she will soon learn as Danerys has learned quite poignantly.  Her only move is to attempt to quietly and quickly move her navy and transport an army to conquer King's Landing.  Otherwise, any delay will spell certain death for her and Dorne as they will have too many enemies and fronts to fight.

Doran S6E3 prediction - remain dead
Trystane S6E3 prediction - found dead in royal cabin; the hunt begins for his murderer(s)
Obara / Nymeria - sneak off ship and swim to shore fully armored and armed with 10 foot spear which will be utterly ridiculous.  They need to command the crew of the ship, tell the captain to allow them ashore and then go back to Sunspear without them and with the body of Trystane.  Their mission is a suicidal one to attempt to get close to the Lannisters and assassinate by poison if they can.
Mellario S6E3 prediction - remain estranged and off camera.  This character should have been introduced and continue ruling or be assassinated off screen and forgotten about in a mere disposition of a one-liner by one of the major characters.

Cersei Lannister - and the reanimated "Mountain" Clegane
Cersei and Jamie need to groom Tommen and fast.  The High Septon is increasing his toe hold and maybe his entire foot on overpowering and censuring royal figures. The standoff between Franken-mountain and the King's men is over and short lived, as the in-fighting has no cause to exist now that all the Lannister's are on the same page with Tommen apologizing to his mother Cersei.

Cersei S6E3 prediction - total breakdown and revenge mode for Myrcella while fretting over her last son to protect him from any possible harm.
Jamie S6E3 prediction - arraign naval and armed forces to assail Sunspear and obliterate Dorne.  House Tyrell will be requested to siege Blackmont, call to the Vale to siege Ironwood, Lannister army to siege Starfall while it's navy blockades the city and crush it first.  Sets up naval trap for Dorne coming to King's Landing in Blackwater Bay much like his brother Tyrion did against Stannis.

Tommen S6E3 prediction - whine at Cersei's feet while "uncle" Jamie teaches him about ruling with an iron first (seet what I did there?) to crush Dorne and marginalize the High Septon.

Myrcella S6E3 prediction - stay dead

Arya Stark - Wandering around and looking for revenge on her hit list. I see her somehow sneaking aboard Mace Tyrell's ship and stowing away.  If the two Sand Snakes can, why not little Arya and her needle? Both the Sand Snakes and Arya have Cersei on their to do lists and might team up for the common cause.  Doubtful as that would be too coincidental and tidy.  I just see Arya trying to kill Franken-Mountain Clegane and Brienne come to her rescue yet again.  Call me an idealist and dreamer

Arya S6E3 prediction - sneaking her way to King's Landing

Jon Snow
This is lame duck season.  All the underpinnings have been put into place to show Jon as the hero to root for.  Coming back from the dead is one reason.  R+L=J is another.  This equation is almost as famous as Einstein's relavitiy (nearly), and the foreshadowing is clearing it up.  Lyssa the younger has been introduced, and we all want to know what secret she swore Eddard to silence that not even death would move his lips to even his own wife. Now that that appears evident; Jon's heritage will be that of Rhaegar Targyrean and Lyssa Stark, and will be confirmed in season 6.  This just causes everyone to celebrate the new King of the Seven Kingdoms yet to be and expect him to vanquish all his enemies and endure; bring Bolton to answer for his crimes, the White Walker Night's King (a great great ... great grandfather Bran Stark), the Lannisters, etc. etc. with a flaming sword.  He has taken the black, now with Melisandre will he take the Light and be "Oathbreaker"? The character is rolling downhill now and the suspense that he will die again is gone and season 7 and 8 are locked up that Jon will survive.  Why bring him back if to kill him yet again. Once it is revealed his is a legacy, will he want to stand up and take the Iron Throne?  Jon can be fickle and swayed to a sense of honor like this "father" Ned, and might feel being the warden of the north is what he is meant to do.  Using word play and craft, Jon can say his duty to the Black is over since he died, but his motives are not prone to use lawyering and shades of grey.  We can all see him leading the Wildlings and any other northerners in an army to defeat the White Walkers once and for all (Are there three horsemen left plus the Night's King?). Then flying a dragon with Dani and Tyrion to wipe out the Lannisters and put end to all squabbles. This does not need all 10 episodes of season 6 and 23 episodes of season 7 and 8 to show; maybe 3.

Jon S6E3 prediction - Since we know the episode's title is "Oathbreaker", that gives us a strong clue that Jon will abandon the Night's Watch.  Jon will lead the Wildlings with Tormund's help and prepare to fight the White Walkers by fortifying other 19 towers along the wall. There's isn't any more time for distractions.  Remember the Hardhome!

Melisandre - Why O Why does she drop her glamour on S6E2 to an old bitty to then just like nothing happened, going back to looking like the seductress?  If she lost faith in the Lord of Light, why continue to use his trinkets? Because it's convienent? Path of least resistance? Self-preservation, because many of the criminals in Castle Black will put her down for witchcraft without batting an eye at the ugly elder? Maybe she paid the ultimate sacrifice and will collapse when the camera catches up to her again?
Did Davos forgive her for forcing Stannis to sacrifice his innocent daughter Shireen to the Lord of Light? Or using black magic to kill Renly Baratheon? I think Davos has settled his conscience with the means to an end at this point.

Mel S6E3 prediction - Becomes a shadow of her former commanding self and follows Jon like a lost puppy since he is the "One" so she must serve him to the bitter end as her only reason for living now. She becomes the spiritual adviser as Jon's #2 Chaplain.

Ser Davos Seaworth  - He appears honorable, but even though he has distaste for Melisandre's black magic, he tolerates it.  He will yet again be another adviser, this time to Jon, much like Jorah is to Danaerys.  He still has that smuggler attitude, so doing the unpredictable thing during battle and war planning is what will win the day for Jon.

Davos S6E3 prediction - Becomes Jon's #1 XO.

Daenerys Targaryen
So there's a hubbub that Dany was never told that she needs to go to pasture like all the other Khal's ex-wives in some temple of Dosh Khaleen.  When Drogon heals, the world is in for some hurt when the dragon wants to find his momma. The khalessi can bid her time and stay protected, but what is in store for her?  A life of a vestal virgin post-virginity and boredom?  She has the Seven Kingdoms to conquer.  She has no time to sit back in the lap of luxury in a temple on a chaise lounge sofa and drink coconut milk.

Dany S6E3 prediction - continue to the temple and learn from some wise women on how to rule and be an authority figure.

Jorah Mormont / Daario - Can you believe he found her ring in the grass in S6E2.  Now that's a ranger better than Aragorn.  These two are just tracking a dragon, and now a horde of Drathoki.  It will be an easy trail to follow, but will they avoid detection.  How much longer does Jorah have before it's obvious to Daario he is contagious with Dragonscale?  When will Jorah go mad with bloodlust? Will he get a cure from the witches much like Shireen?  We know that's a possibility and we all like Jorah and want him to survive as a crowd favorite.  This story arc has completely strayed off from the books and we all wait and wait and wait for something to actually happen.

Jorah S6E3 prediction - Continue to follow and avoid being caught. Dany is not in trouble.
Daario S6E3 prediction - Continue completely oblivious to Jorah turning to Dragonscale

Varys -
Tyrion Lannister -
I'm totally bewildered by what Varys and Tyrion can do in Mereen. They are strangers in a strange land. They are surrounded by Harpies, who may or may not be loyal to the old Masters, but want the old ways of slaves to reconvene. They have no navy and only the keystone Unsullied to protect them, but when the treasury runs out, who's paying the army? Mereen appears to be blockades by the Yunkai and besieged without.  Citizens are running for the hills and I suspect those would be the former Masters if they had any sense and renounce the new rulers when they flee.  How much longer can these two hold on  Even Nero knew when to play the violin and call it quits. They don't speak the local language, they don't believe in the local customs, so I'm sure that just infuriates the commoners even more to revolt rather than be ruled like sheeple by foreign usurpers. What do Varys and Tyrion have to offer the people of Merreen besides hardship? And to top it off, they release two hungry and nasty teenaged dragons.  What are they thinking? I don't personally see the affinity for backing Tyrion as he is such a flawed character, although he is an underdog and quite affiable when sober (and cunning).

Tyrion S6E3 prediction - With no way to control the dragons to roost back home in their dungeon, he needs to hole up in the palace. He is no better than the Masters they overthrew in maintaining prosperity or peace. As a rampant whore mongerer and drunk, he realizes the gig is up and fortifies his position and prays for a save. As a dwarf, he stands out like a sore thumb, unless he can hid as a short child.  Good luck to him.  In the books, he winds up with the Golden Company and another lost claimant to the Iron Throne. With Aegon nowhere to be found, and no Daario or Jorah, I don't see Tyrion leading the Company against the Free Cities of Yunkai and Astapor and break the siege. The writers are devoid of any competent content and motivations that the show glosses this story arc in such a weak and limb fashion with little satisfaction to watch.

Varys S6E3 prediction - He wants to get out of town - and fast.  As a spymaster, he will have no problem escaping the city if needed. However, I see he can achieve a coup with the Harpies and comes to terms with their desires and quell them with negotiations as he finds the brain trust leaders. Slavery is coming back, but in guise under another name.

Unsullied - Grey Worm - Leading a highly ineffective militia city watch force, and nearly mortally wounded, Grey Worm has a budding romance with Missandei (but poor Grey Worm is a eunuch), and filling the power void left by Barristen Selmy; some mighty big boots to fill indeed, especially since he was not able to save him (though in the books, Selmy is still considered alive and well and very cunning). Grey is not a general, nor an officer and not trained in the arts of warfare.  His time for having any effect on the Seven Kingdoms is at an end, and his story is not very interested.

Grey Worm S6E3 prediction - fade into the limelight with Missi and be glad he's no longer a foot soldier.

Brandon Stark - Yawn; what can I say? This is magic and boring stuff and why it was off screen for season 5.  He's fusing with the trees around the kingdom. What else can he do other than be the network and communicate between endpoints, warging in ravens and wolves to spy around. Is there a tie in to the Maester's ravens and the Three Eyed Raven? Coincidence is strong with this one. All I see is that Bran has visions and is the glue that binds the major triumvirate against the Iron Throne pretenders.

Rickon Stark - He's too  young to make a claim to the Stark House. He should remain in hiding, train and train some more and grow up to a strong young man. He should not move against anyone and change his identity to survive if he's smart.

Ultimate Prediction as to who will sit on the Iron Throne:
Danaerys - Dragon Queen power. She is not mad like her father and has command of three dragons to boot. Plus she is charismatic. That is a winning combination if I every saw one.

Imagine Danny with three dragons behind her ready to breathe fire and she sweetly asks: Can I sit on the Iron Throne?  Who can deny her?

Second Runner Up:
Jon - due to his resurrection, that might be a bit much for him to accept and the world to swallow. Perhaps if Danaerys does not survive, Jon will go to prove his lineage to Rhaeger for authenticity and assume the mantle and feel duty bound to keep the world from ripping itself apart.

Tyrion has no claim.

Footnotes

Mance Ryder - So supposedly he is still alive, saved from execution by Melisandre using a glamor and spiriting him away.  Would be nice for a feel good ending that he reunites with the Wildlings and Jon Snow at the final battle against the White Walkers.

Samwell Tarly - He is off to be trained as a Maester and come back to the Castle Black at the Wall.  He was just a foil for Jon to show off his humanity and decency, defending the "weak" and downtrodden.  His minor bit part has been played and is truly a footnote of history.

Lady Catelyn Stark - Supposedly Beric Dondarrion gave his life in order to resurrect Catelyn Stark after the Red Wedding, but on the show there is no hint of that.  For some odd reason, I suspect Catelyn as Lady Stoneheart has her revenge on Petyr Baelish for being a turncoat and causing the death of her husband Lord Eddard "Ned" Stark.  However, the true blame lies on Joffrey "Lannister" Baratheon for Ned's death.  Petyr was just playing the game - don't hate the player. Besides, Petyr helped spirit Sansa away from the nutcase Joffrey's sadistic charms.  So there might be a bit of a moral conflict in Baelish's future by Stoneheart's hand, I don't feel Petyr has earned her full unbridled wrath.  I would have liked for her to have a hand in Arya's mission to scratch out the enemies on her list; especially Cersei once the prophecy of her three children's death before her own has been completed.